Archive for 'Global Scene'
"Cycles Ain't Cycles"
Posted on 09. Aug, 2010 by Chris Lang.
Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.
The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted
Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail [...]
Continue Reading
Some Gloom ... Yet More Glee!
Posted on 30. Jun, 2010 by Chris Lang.
The US Federal Reserve is concerned that consumption is still being underpinned by government funding.
And so, even though stimulus measures may be winding down ... the Fed has decided to maintain interest rates at their historically low level.
It seems that households and businesses are preferring to repay debt, rather than spend to encourage investment [...]
Continue Reading
Interest Rate Rises ...
Are they a Good Sign?
Posted on 05. May, 2010 by Chris Lang.
The RBA's decision on interest rates yesterday came about because of what's happening here in Australia, rather than in Europe.
It has been made against the backdrop of our exporters having recently extracted massive price hikes for iron or in coal, as a result of China's strong growth.
Since the global turmoil started in 2008, the $A [...]
Continue Reading
"Things Can Change So Quickly"
Posted on 15. Apr, 2010 by Chris Lang.
ave you stopped to think just how things have changed over the past 25 years?
Just take a look at the global trade figures for the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain.
After the United States, China is now the world's largest economy. However, it is currently the largest exporter; while being the second-largest importer.
Here's a [...]
Continue Reading
Will Interest Rates Affect
Commercial Yields?
Posted on 07. Apr, 2010 by Chris Lang.
Yesterday, the RBA confirmed an upward bias with its latest rate increase.
This table from today's Financial Review seems to sum up the RBA's position fairly well.
Residential property prices are still surging (particularly in Sydney & Melbourne); and our commodity exports have also regained their momentum.
As such, the RBA has decided that Australia is in full [...]
Continue Reading
Election Year Blues?
Posted on 11. Mar, 2010 by Chris Lang.
It's not just rising interest rates that the Rudd government will have to contend with, in the run-up to the next election.
The joy of the resources boom restarting brings with it certain unwanted side effects. What you will start to see is wage rate increases; plus the drawing away of materials and equipment, from other [...]
Continue Reading
Was the RBA Asleep at the Wheel?
Posted on 04. Mar, 2010 by Chris Lang.
In fact, the RBA has been cautious ... NOT asleep!
Last week, we covered the statistical anomaly relating to Australia's low unemployment figure. And that may well have influenced the RBA in holding rates steady last month.
Although, the patchy spending in December and January probably coloured their thinking as well.
Nonetheless, you continue to see a [...]
Continue Reading
"Statistics Never Lie, or Do They?"
Posted on 25. Feb, 2010 by Chris Lang.
There are some interesting outcomes emerging from a wash-up of the recent financial turmoil.
Australia has fared best among the Western countries, with its unemployment rate at only 5.3% and falling. But does this now mean you'll start to see wage pressures emerging?
Continue Reading
What about the Baby-Boomer Effect?
Posted on 02. Feb, 2010 by Chris Lang.
Yesterday, the Federal government released Australia's third Intergenerational Report.
And about five years ago, I came out with a somewhat startling statement:
"If you haven't sold your traditional family home by 2010 ... you had better be prepared to hold it until 2025 — because there simply won't be a market for it!"
Continue Reading
Your Opportunities Moving Forward?
Posted on 21. Jan, 2010 by Chris Lang.
There has been much written already about the global financial crisis.
But in layman's terms, it occurred as a result of capital imbalances occurring throughout the world. And nowhere more so, than in America.
The principal cause can be found with the high levels of US debt-funded consumption. And in order to better understand this distortion, you [...]
Continue Reading
Biggest Economic Threat For Australia
Posted on 13. Jan, 2010 by Chris Lang.
It might surprise you to hear this, however ...
A Strong US Recovery
... would probably be the worst thing to happen for Australia in 2010.
If that occurs, the US Federal Reserve would be forced to quickly raise interest rates, from zero to around 3%. And that would cause the collapse in the Australian dollar from its [...]
