"Cycles Ain't Cycles"
Posted on 09. Aug, 2010 by Chris Lang in Commercial Property, Development Opportunity, Economic Issues, Global Scene, Industrial Sector, Investment Objectives, Investment Opportunity, Property Cycles, Retail Sector, Your Exposure
Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.
The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted
Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.
However, given Australia's privileged position within the global scene ... my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
This was borne out recently at a conference for the Commercial property sector — where Frank Gelber (of BIS Shrapnel) confirmed the underlying strength of the market.
Your Timing from Here ...
Office rentals are already on the rise, with vacancies set to fall.
By 2014, you should see Office rentals reach a level high enough to support significant speculative development once again.
And this will most likely result in an end-cycle boom, which would peak in 2017.
Act Now ... and Capture a Strategic Advantage!
Normally, you would have more time to secure your position, ready for the upturn. But that upturn is already underway.
As such, you need to act now to identify and acquire some quality Commercial property ... with the idea of cashing out, sometime in 2016.
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