For the time being, the RBA's focus is upon "inflation excluding volatile items" — mainly because of the various natural disasters, both here and overseas. [Read more...]
Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.
h3. The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted
Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.
However, given Australia's privileged position within the global scene … my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
h2. How do you ever understand them?
Before talking to you about Commercial property, let's take a quick look at Investment Cycles in general.
My reading would be that Australia is currently at the "Optimism" stage of the upturn — perhaps with some capital cities, a little more so than others. But generally, that's about where most of us are at the moment.
As a result of the global financial crisis … sales of Melbourne CBD Offices fell in 2008 (to $425.2m) from the level achieved in 2007 (of $850.9m) — according to research released by CBRE.
Institutional buyers and REITs have virtually withdrawn from the market … leaving private syndicates, wealthy families and overseas buyers to transact most of the deals.